India’s journey to the World Test Championship (WTC) final in 2025 is on a knife-edge as the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) 2024-25 series against Australia reaches its climax. Currently sitting third in the WTC standings, India has been faced with the challenging task of qualifying for the summit clash in June 2025. After a rain-affected draw in the third Test, India’s qualification hopes depend heavily on the results of the remaining two Tests in Melbourne and Sydney.
WTC Points Table Update
As of now, the WTC standings look as follows:
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Lost | Draw | Points | PCT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 76 | 63.33 |
| 2 | Australia | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 106 | 58.89 |
| 3 | India | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 114 | 55.88 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 114 | 43.18 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 45 | 31.15 |
| 9 | West Indies | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 32 | – |
India’s 55.88% percentage points (PCT) currently places them behind South Africa and Australia. With just two more Tests to play, the outcome of these matches could determine whether India secures a place in the WTC final. But what if the series ends in a draw? Let’s explore the potential scenarios that could unfold.
Scenario 1: 2-2 Draw Between India and Australia
If the BGT 2024-25 ends with a 2-2 scoreline, the situation becomes complicated. Here’s what would need to happen for India to make it to the WTC final:
- India would end with a PCT of 55.26% after the 2-2 draw.
- India would then need to rely on the outcomes of other series, specifically the South Africa vs. Pakistan and Sri Lanka vs. Australia Test series.
- For India to advance, South Africa must lose both games to Pakistan. Additionally, Australia must lose the Test series against Sri Lanka either 0-2 or at least draw 0-0.
- A Sri Lanka 2-0 win over Australia would give Sri Lanka a higher PCT than India, which would rule out India’s qualification.
- If Australia and Sri Lanka end in a 0-0 draw, India could still qualify, as India would surpass Australia in PCT due to having more series wins in the cycle.
Scenario 2: 1-1 Draw Between India and Australia
A 1-1 draw in the final two Tests would further complicate India’s path to the WTC final. Here’s what would need to happen:
- India would finish with a PCT of 53.51%, tied with Australia but with fewer series wins.
- For India to qualify, South Africa must lose both their games to Pakistan, and Australia must lose to Sri Lanka either 0-1 or have a 0-0 draw.
- In the case of a 0-0 draw between Australia and Sri Lanka, India would edge out Australia due to having more series wins (India has 3 series wins in the WTC cycle compared to Australia’s 2).
While this outcome is less favorable than a 2-2 draw, India still has a shot if other results go their way.
India’s Path to the Final if BGT Ends in a Draw
The Indian cricket team’s qualification depends not only on their performance in the final two Tests but also on how other series pan out. If India cannot win the final two Tests, they will be forced to rely on the outcomes of the South Africa-Pakistan and Sri Lanka-Australia series.
India’s hopes remain alive as long as:
- Australia loses to Sri Lanka.
- South Africa loses to Pakistan.
However, if Sri Lanka defeats Australia 2-0, India’s qualification becomes even more difficult, as Sri Lanka’s points would surpass India’s.
Conclusion: India’s Path to WTC Final
In summary, if the BGT 2024-25 series ends in a draw, India’s qualification for the World Test Championship final is still possible but reliant on favorable results in other series. India’s best chance comes with a 2-2 draw in the BGT, but even a 1-1 draw keeps the dream alive, provided that South Africa loses to Pakistan, and Australia falters against Sri Lanka.
With the remaining matches in Melbourne and Sydney crucial to their hopes, the Indian team will be hoping for strong performances to finish on a high, while keeping an eye on the outcomes in South Africa and Sri Lanka. All eyes will be on the final two Tests, as India looks to secure its place in the 2025 WTC final and make history once again.
