India’s path to securing a spot in the 2023-2025 World Test Championship (WTC) final is getting clearer as they continue their strong campaign in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT). After a commanding 295-run victory over Australia in Perth, India have not only reclaimed the top spot on the WTC standings but also strengthened their chances of appearing in their third consecutive WTC final. However, with key Test series still to play out, India’s qualification is far from guaranteed. Let’s break down the scenarios and examine how results from the England vs New Zealand and South Africa vs Sri Lanka Test series could impact India’s journey to the final.
India’s Current Position in the WTC Standings
India’s 295-run win in the first BGT Test has propelled them back to the number one spot in the WTC standings with a Points Percentage (PCT) of 61.11%. This is just ahead of second-placed Australia, who currently sit at 57.69% PCT. With four more Tests left against Australia, India has the opportunity to qualify for the final with a strong performance, needing to win at least three of those matches to ensure a top-two finish. However, the road to qualification is not solely in their hands—India will also be relying on the outcomes of other key series, particularly England vs New Zealand and South Africa vs Sri Lanka.
England vs New Zealand: A Crucial Series for India’s WTC Hopes
England, currently ranked sixth with a PCT of 40.79%, have already been eliminated from contention for the WTC final. However, their upcoming Test series against New Zealand could play a pivotal role in India’s qualification hopes. For India to move closer to securing their spot, England must defeat New Zealand in their Test series, regardless of the margin. A series win for England (whether by 2-0, 2-1, or 3-0) will prevent New Zealand from surpassing a PCT of 50%, making it easier for India to finish above the Kiwis in the standings.
This would also provide India with a cushion, meaning they would only need to win one or two of their remaining Tests against Australia or even draw a couple to maintain their position in the top two. If New Zealand fails to secure significant points, India will have a better chance of finishing ahead of them, keeping their WTC final hopes alive.
South Africa vs Sri Lanka: The Battle for the Third Spot
While India and Australia sit comfortably in the top two spots in the WTC standings, Sri Lanka, ranked third with a PCT of 55.56%, still has a real chance of breaking into the top two. However, Sri Lanka’s success or failure in their series against South Africa will heavily influence India’s qualification prospects. Here’s a look at how different outcomes could affect the WTC points table:
- If Sri Lanka wins both Tests against South Africa, their PCT will rise to 63.64%, surpassing India’s current PCT and making them a serious contender for the final. In this scenario, India would need to win at least two of their remaining four Tests against Australia to secure their place in the WTC final.
- If South Africa wins 2-0, they will leapfrog Sri Lanka and raise their PCT to 63.33%, while Sri Lanka’s PCT will drop to 45.45%. This outcome would effectively eliminate South Africa from the final race, making the series between India and Australia even more critical. India would still need to secure a series win to ensure qualification.
- If the series ends in a 1-1 draw, both South Africa and Sri Lanka will remain in contention, with South Africa’s PCT standing at 53.33% and Sri Lanka at 54.55%. In this case, India’s performance in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy will become even more significant, as they would need to finish ahead of both teams in the standings.
What Does India Need to Do?
While the results of these two series will play a significant role in shaping India’s qualification chances, Rohit Sharma’s men must also focus on their own performance. Here’s a summary of what India needs to do to reach the WTC final:
- Win at least three out of four Tests against Australia: If India manages to win three of their remaining four Tests against Australia, they will almost certainly secure their place in the WTC final, irrespective of the outcomes in the England vs New Zealand and South Africa vs Sri Lanka series.
- Secure one or two draws against Australia: If India wins one or two of their remaining Tests, they can still qualify, provided that New Zealand is kept below a PCT of 50%, and South Africa or Sri Lanka does not manage a perfect series result.
- Monitor results of other series: India must keep a close eye on how England vs New Zealand and South Africa vs Sri Lanka unfold, as these results could impact their position on the points table.
Conclusion: India’s Path to the WTC Final
India’s qualification for the WTC final remains in their hands, but external factors from key series will play a major role in determining their fate. If England can secure a win over New Zealand, and Sri Lanka does not dominate South Africa, India will have a clearer path to qualification, even if they don’t win every Test against Australia. Ultimately, securing a top-two finish is within reach for India, but they must stay focused on winning crucial matches and keeping an eye on developments in other series.
By winning at least three more Tests against Australia and hoping for favorable outcomes in the England and South Africa series, India can seal their place in the WTC final and continue their quest for global supremacy in Test cricket.
